Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.
Table of Contents
Foreword, Martin Joseph and Alec Finney; Preface; PART I. FOUNDATIONS OF APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 1. Introduction to Applied New Product Forecasting; Clarifying the Terminology of Product, Service, and/or Offering; * A New Product Forecasting Directive; * Beginning the New Product Forecasting Endeavor; * Types of New Product Estimates; * New Product Planning Versus New Product Forecasting; * Types of New Products; * New Product Forecasting Techniques; * New Product Forecasting Strategy: Linking Techniques to Type of New Product; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 2. New Product Development and New Product Forecasting: Process and Structure; The New Product Development Process; * Using Teams to Structure New Product Development; * The New Product Forecasting Process; * Assumptions Management; * S&OP and New Product Forecasting; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART II. NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; 3. Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques; Jury of Executive Opinion; * Sales Force Composite; * Scenario Analysis; * Delphi Method; * Assumptions-Based Modeling; * Using Assumptions-Based Models to Identify Critical Assumptions and Examine Risk; * Decision Trees; * Markov Process Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 4. Customer/Market Research Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Concept Testing; * Product Use Testing; * Market Testing; * Conjoint Analysis; * Quality Function Deployment; * The Kano Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 5. Time Series Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Look-Like Analysis (Analogous Forecasting); * Diffusion Modeling; * Composite Curve Approach; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 6. Regression Analysis for New Product Forecasting; Correlation; * Regression Analyses; * Final Comments on Regression Analyses; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART III. MANAGERIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 7. Special Topics in New Product Forecasting; Understanding the Launch Phenomenon; * The Launch Cycle; * Pre-Launch Preparation: Launch Control Protocol; * Launch Tracking and the Launch Scorecard; * Special New Product Forecasting Issues; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 8. New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; Review of Literature on New Product Forecasting Practices; * New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; * Final Observations; * Implications for Your Company's New Product Forecasting Process; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; References; * About the Author; * Index.